If the European debt crisis grows significantly worse it would wreak havoc on U.S. business travel. A severe crisis could result in a 9% decline in trips and 16% drop in spending – nearly $88 billion.

Given the critical role of business travel in facilitating economic growth, the current slow U.S. recovery could be severely hampered if the European debt crisis is not resolved. International outbound travel, which has played an outsized part in the revival of business travel since the recession, would be crushed by further deterioration in the Eurozone.

The research was conducted through an analysis and econometric model used in GBTA’s Business Travel Quarterly Outlook reports which was altered or “shocked” to assume conditions of a worsening European debt crisis.