GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States: 2012 Q2
Statistics & Metrics
Date: July 10, 2012
About this Resource
Economic uncertainty in Europe will dramatically slow the growth of business travel in the United States through the end of the year, according to the latest GBTA BTI™ Outlook - United States a report from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) and sponsored by Visa, Inc. In addition, ongoing concern in the U.S. economy, including low job growth, falling consumer confidence and retail sales, and slowing corporate profits, have created significant headwinds for business travel in the near term. Finally, there is increasing evidence that businesses may be entering into a holding pattern as they wait for the economic environment to solidify.
The GBTA BTI™, a proprietary index of business travel activity, for Q1 2012 came in at 116, two points lower than the projected value in GBTA's last outlook. The slightly lower value has been driven by a more rapid deterioration in Europe, slower growth in Asia, and deepening signs of weakness in the U.S. While the GBTA BTI™ is four points higher than 2011 Q1, it has been relatively flat since reaching 117 in 2011 Q3.
GBTA is now predicting the GBTA BTI™ to reach the pre-recession level of 120 by 2013 Q1. The revision to the forecast points to slow growth in business travel through 2013, with the GBTA BTI™ gaining one point per quarter over the forecast horizon.
The GBTA BTI™ provides a way to distill market performance and the outlook for business travel into a single metric that can be tracked over time.