GBTA BTI™ Outlook – United States: 2012 Q3
Statistics & Metrics
Date: October 9, 2012
About this Resource
Economic turmoil in Europe, slower growth in China and U.S. unemployment are expected to curb business travel growth in the United States through the end of the year, according to the latest GBTA BTI™ Outlook - United States, a report from the Global Business Travel Association (GBTA) sponsored by Visa, Inc. With disappointing job gains and the upcoming Presidential election on the horizon, businesses appear to be taking a cautious approach to their investment in travel until there is greater economic clarity.
GBTA now expects total U.S. business travel spending to grow 2.6% for 2012, reaching $257 billion by the end of the year. While this is a moderate increase since last quarter, when GBTA estimated growth in 2012 at 2.2%, the uptick in spend is largely being driven by rising business travel costs. In fact, total business trip volume is expected to reach 109.9 million for the remainder of the year - a reduction of -1.6% from 2011.
Looking ahead to 2013, GBTA research forecasts business travel spend will grow 4.9%, reaching $270 billion - which is a slight upgrade from 4.7% growth in 2013, which GBTA forecast in the second quarter. Total trip volume is expected to fall -1.1% in 2013.
The GBTA BTI™, a proprietary index of business travel activity, came in at 118 for Q2 2012, one point higher than the projected value in GBTA's previous outlook. The slightly higher value has been driven by slow but growing domestic GDP and corporate profits.
GBTA is predicting continued slow but steady growth over the forecast horizon, with the BTI™ hitting its former peak of 120 by the end of the year. The BTI™ is forecast to grow just over a point per quarter over the next six quarters.