GBTA BTI™ Outlook – China: 2012 H2
Statistics & Metrics
Date: October 17, 2012
About this Resource
The Global Business Travel Association ("GBTA") announces the results of its second GBTA BTI™ Outlook - China report, a semi-annual analysis of one of the largest business travel markets in the world. The report, sponsored by Visa, includes the GBTA BTI™, an index of business travel spending that distills market performance over a period of time.
- China's economy has slowed in lockstep with Europe's woes. GBTA forecasts that China's GDP will grow by only 7.8% in 2012, down from 9.2% GDP growth in 2011
- Chinese authorities have managed their economy through the global slowdown, with the economy being purposely rebalanced toward domestic growth
- Chinese business travel will continue to show strong growth over the next 18 months, with total business travel spending forecast to grow by 12.5% in 2012 to $195 billion, followed by another 14.7% in 2013
- Domestic business travel will recover sooner and more strongly than international outbound (IOB). In 2012 domestic travel spend will grow by 12.8%. It is expected that in 2013 domestic spend will grow 14.6% reaching $213 billion USD
- Growth in IOB is forecast to slow considerably over 2012 reaching only 5.5% growth, compared to 12% growth in 2011. In 2013, IOB is expected to grow 17.5% reaching $10 billion USD
About the GBTA BTI™ Outlook - China
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook projects aggregate business travel trends over the next eight quarters. The report tracks business travel spending in total and by domestic and outbound segments. It relates unfolding economic events at home and abroad to their resulting impacts on China's business travel market. GBTA BTI ™ - China 2012 is the second report in the semi-annual series. Releases are planned for April and October.
The GBTA BTI™ Outlook uses an econometric model to better inform the forecast process. The model explicitly relates measures of business travel spending, uniquely sourced from other GBTA Foundation research, to key economic and market drivers of business travel including: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and its components; employment and unemployment; measures of business and consumer confidence; international trade, foreign direct investment and exchange rates; commodity and oil prices; inflation measures; productivity rates for business travel; International Air Transport Association (IATA) Passenger and Revenue Performance and Smith Travel Research (STR) Global Hotel Performance.